Power 5 College Football Teams Underperforming Ahead of National Signing Day

Written by Ryan Wright

Twitter: @RyanWrightRNG

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Recruiting rankings are not the end all be all for gauging success on the field, but can be a pretty good indicator unless said staff does a great job of identifying three-star prospects that fit their scheme and future needs, which is rare. Teams in the Power Five Conferences go through a different level of attrition during any given season where one play, or one top talent, can make the difference between a conference championship season, a runner-up finish or worse. With two weeks left until National Signing Day, there are elite programs falling by the wayside with little time or prospects left to make up ground.

Down the backstretch of the 2021 recruiting cycle, there are only 17 players rated as a four-star or above left publicly undeclared. Of the 66 Power Five Conference teams, that leaves little upward movement in the rankings with less opportunity to snag a labeled difference maker, assuming all 17 head to a P5 squad.

As always, the teams atop the recruiting heap are loaded with Alabama leading the way with 26 total commits, a mix of seven five-stars, 15 four-stars, and four three-star prospects. Rounding out the Top 5 are No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Georgia, No. 4 Clemson, and No. 5 LSU. With 19 of the 34 players selected as five-star recruits committed to these Top 5 squads, conference foes appear to be in trouble.

The Underperforming P5 Teams

With the dismissal of Will Muschamp from the Gamecocks on Nov. 15, South Carolina is in a freefall. A year ago, the haul finished No. 19 overall but now has the dubious honor of being the lowest rated P5 team slotted at No. 88 with just 11 commitments. The upside, all 11 are three-star players. The downside, teams like Rice, New Mexico, Northern Illinois, and Miami-Ohio are currently outperforming new head coach Shane Beamer and Co.

It has been five years since Texas Tech produced a winning season, eight since producing back-to-back winning seasons. After taking over for Kliff Kingsbury, Matt Wells has produced consecutive four-win campaigns. The performance on the recruiting trail can be a tie-in. The Red Raiders ended the 2020 cycle ranked No. 48, but have dropped to No. 77 this time around. There is room for this class to inch up with a solid foundation of 12 commits, two four-stars and nine three-stars, but have a long way to go to get to that competitive level among their Big 12 brethren.

Since the wheels came off the Rich Rodriguez bus at the end of the 2015 season, life in Tucson has been difficult. Former Arizona head coach Kevin Sumlin produced nine wins in three seasons wrapping 2020 winless (0-5). New head coach Jedd Fisch has a long road ahead of him after spending the last three years at the NFL level, two with the Rams and one with the Patriots. The 2020 class gifted to him was ranked No. 59 with 22 three-star prospects. The current class is at No. 75 with 19 total, 17 three-stars, just ahead of Texas Tech and just behind Illinois at No. 74.

To praise Dave Clawson or apply a little “what if” pressure? Recruiting to Wake Forest is not easy. Not only does one have academic requirements to get past for their prospects but are also directly recruiting against North Carolina and Duke along with every other ACC team possible. After a four-year run of doing the most with lesser rated recruiting classes, the Deacs had their first losing season since 2015 in 2020 ending with a 4-5 record. The 2020 recruiting rankings had Wake at No. 60 and are at No. 64 now with 20 commits, 18 three-stars. Clawson is getting it done, but the fanbase still has to wonder what if adding a four-star or two here and there that could push them past that seven- and eight-win plateau.

Two other P5 squads underperforming, especially after the seasons just turned in are Indiana (No. 62) and Northwestern (60). On the same mindset of doing more with less, both staffs are getting it done coaching up their kids… but what if these classes were bolstered by a few more difference makers?

The Pac-12 has some high achieving recruiting classes in Oregon (No. 6) and USC (8), but have some languishing below expectations, Arizona State (41) and Stanford (54). With new coaching staffs, time will tell if Washington State (58) and Colorado (57) can recruit the correct abundance of three-stars that post wins on the scoreboard.

The last two teams to rough up are Baylor and Auburn, both still in process of transitioning on the sidelines. Baylor finished the 2020 cycle at No. 50 with 18 commits and are creeping up settling in at No. 42 with 17 commits, two four-stars and 15 three-stars. Art Briles and Matt Rhule showed the Bears can be a winning program in the modern era… can Dave Aranda capitalize on the abundance of talent in the Lonestar State to get the team back to double-digit win seasons? The 2-7 run in 2020 was not the debut desired for Aranda.

After seven winning seasons with Boise State, five with 10 or more wins, Bryan Harsin is a proven commodity on the sidelines. Yet, those coaching skills will be put to the test at Auburn against SEC West competition in 2021. In the change from Gus Malzahn to Harsin, Auburn’s class has spiraled down to No. 48, one spot ahead of Vanderbilt in the conference’s recruiting cellar before reaching South Carolina. The War Eagles recruited among the best in the nation last season turning in the seventh best in the country. How much ground can this class make up in two weeks off Harsin and Auburn’s reputation?

*Related Link: Power 5 and Group of 5 Teams Succeeding on the Recruiting Trail Despite Recruiting Rankings

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Photo credit: KTVB.com; Bryan Harsin at Auburn