2015 Pac-12 Conference Championship Game Preview: No. 7 Stanford vs. No. 24 USC

Written by Ryan Wright

Twitter: @HogManInLA

The 2015 college football season was a wild ride in the Pac-12 with a lot of uncertainties keeping even the average fan on the edge of their seat throughout the year. When the preseason AP Top 25 rankings came out in August, Oregon, ranked No. 7, and USC, ranked No. 8, were tabbed as the winners of the Pac-12 North and South respectively. USC (8-4, 6-3) ended up holding their ground despite a turbulent season on the sidelines and a must-win to get in against UCLA in Week 13. Meanwhile, Stanford (10-2, 8-1) disappointed Duck fans maintaining a stronghold throughout their campaign.

Stanford has no tricks up their sleeves. The Cardinal under head coach David Shaw are there to ground and pound with a stifling defense wearing out the opposition. Stanford had a balanced offense rushing for 2,664 yards while passing for 2,587 scoring an average of 37 points per game. Their defense was solid ranking No. 42 in the nation allowing 23 points per contest.

The Trojans overcame the dismissal of season starting head coach Steve Sarkisian and a 3-3 start finding their rhythm in the middle of the season. Offensive coordinator turned interim head coach Todd Helton, and now official head coach after signing a five-year contract on Monday, appears to have the confidence of the administration and the players heading into post season play. The Trojans closed out the season going 5-1 with key wins over then- No. 3 Utah (42-24) and No. 22 UCLA (40-21).

Keys to the Game

USC’s Passing Attack vs. Stanford’s Pass Defense

USC’s offense in 2015 may not be as prolific as seen in 2014 when the Trojans had the No. 15 passing attack in the nation averaging 297 yards per game but make no mistake in judgement, this Trojans team can get the ball up and down the field in the air. Senior quarterback Cody Kessler gets the ball out on average with 261 yards per game. Kessler is fifth in the conference in total passing yards with 3,128 but has 70 less pass attempts than the conference’s No. 4 passer, UCLA’s Josh Rosen (3,351 yards) and 214 fewer attempts than the conference leader, Washington State’s Luke Falk (418 of 591 for 4,266 yards).

If Stanford has a true weakness on defense, it is their pass defense. The Cardinal are ranked No. 74 in the nation allowing 231 yards per game via the air. The numbers might be skewed realizing the Cardinal played against the No. 1 passing attack in the nation, Washington State, and the No. 5 unit, Cal, this season. Stanford has also played against Oregon this year, thus they have seen it all defending the pass at this point in the season.

USC will try to replicate the success the Ducks had against the Cardinal on Nov. 14 in a 38-36 win. Oregon had 436 yards of total offense getting 205 passing but split open the Cardinal’s rush defense for 231 yards.

Christian McCaffrey vs. USC’s Rush Defense

Stanford has one of the best rushing attacks in the nation thanks to sophomore tailback Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey is second in the Pac-12 with 1,640 yards to go along with his seven touchdowns. The 6’0”, 195 pound, talent is an all-purpose back leading the Cardinal in receptions as well with 37 passes hauled in for 435 yards with three additional scores. The Colorado native also leads his team in punt return yards and is among the conference’s best in kick return yards with 922 yards off 31 attempts with a 98-yard return for a score. Stopping McCaffrey is a must for the Trojans.

USC has exceled against the run this year allowing 138 per contest. The Trojans have faced three of the better rushing attacks in the nation, No. 5 Oregon, No. 22 Stanford, and No. 24 Notre Dame. USC is 0-3 in those marquee games this season. In the two teams’ earlier match-up on Sept. 19, Stanford had 474 yards of total offense getting 195 on the ground and 279 passing. McCaffrey rushed for 115 yards on 26 carries. Remound Wright got the headlines rushing 11 times for 41 yards with three scores on the ground.

Which Team Can Be More Disciplined

The “X” factors in any sporting event are the little things like turnovers, penalties, and in football, third down conversions. The Trojans are one of the top teams in the nation in keeping the ball while creating turnovers. USC is ranked No. 6 in the nation in turnover margin giving 10 away but has picked up 23 in return. Stanford on the flip side is in the negative on turnover margin giving away just 12 but have only taken back 11 giveaways.

Stanford wins the next two variables fairly handily only giving away on average 43 yards in penalties per game and converting 51 percent of their third down chances, 81-of-159 while holding the opposition to a 37 percent success rate. USC gives away 70 yards in penalties per game and are converting on third down at a 40 percent rate. The Trojans defense is bailing out the offense with a stifling 34 percent of third downs being converted against them, ranked 30th in the nation.

Final Analysis

The first time around Stanford used a heavy mix of quarterback Kevin Hogan and McCaffrey for the 41-31 win. USC jumped out to an early 21-10 lead but Stanford fought back going into the locker room up 24-21 at halftime. USC answered the bell early in the third but Stanford scored 17 in the second half finding a way to get points as needed.

The Kessler to JuJu Smith-Schuster combination worked for eight connections covering 153 yards and one score. Trojans running back Tre Madden had just nine carries for 64 yards with a score the first time around. Justin Davis looked great against UCLA rushing for 130 yards on 25 carries. Davis has come on of late rushing for an average of 110 yards per game over his last four contests. Can Davis continue his run against Stanford?

USC has two wins over ranked teams, Utah and UCLA but have fallen short against teams with stout to good defenses; Stanford, Washington, and Notre Dame. A win for Todd Helton here would be pretty amazing having the bragging rights of his first official head coaching victory coming against a Top 10 team to win the Pac-12 Championship.

Stanford has been to the Pac-12 Championship Game twice winning twice; the North Division has taken all four previous match-ups with Oregon winning twice as well. This is the first visit for the Trojans. Little bit of a home field advantage for Stanford.

Prediction: Stanford 34, USC 28

Game Information

Kickoff: 7:45 ET

Coverage: ESPN

Location: Levi’s Stadium

Line: Stanford -4.5

Photo credit: Mark J Terrill; Kevin Hogan attempts to run away from USC defenders Antwaun Woods and Su’a Cravens Sept. 19, 2015.