No. 17 Arkansas Razorbacks vs. No. 10 Texas A&M Aggies Preview and Prediction
Written by Ryan Wright
Twitter: @HogManInLA
The Arkansas Razorbacks and Texas A&M Aggies enter Saturday’s game with unblemished records hoping to propel their season forward with a needed Southeastern Conference win. Alabama maybe the No. 1 team in the nation, returning national champs, and the barrier for which all SEC West teams must go through if dreams of playing in Atlanta at season’s end are truly desired, but as of Week 5, the Aggies and Razorbacks have as good a shot as anyone to win the West.
The Aggies are the Hogs first foray of the 2016 season into conference play and A&M enters the game coming off a big road win over Auburn. Both squads have key non-conference wins on the resume with A&M taking down then- No. 16 UCLA 31-24 at home and Arkansas going on the road in Week 3 beating then- No. 15 TCU 41-38 in double-overtime. Time will tell how meaningful wins over the Bruins out of the Pac-12 and the Horned Frogs in the Big 12 are to strength of schedule pundits, but for now both teams enter the game battle tested.
The two former Southwest Conference foes have another commonality, familiarity. Arkansas owns the all-time series 41-27-3 but the Aggies have won the last four with the last two going into overtime; 35-28 in 2014 and 28-21 in 2015. The difference in perceived styles of play have balanced out to a highly competitive game between Aggies head coach Kevin Sumlin and Arkansas head coach Bret Bielema.
Arkansas (3-0, 0-0) Texas A&M (3-0, 1-0)
Kickoff: 9:00 P.M. ET
Location: Arlington, TX
Site: AT&T Stadium
TV Coverage: ESPN
Spread: Arkansas +5.5
Keys to the Game
Allen vs Aggies Pass Rush
Allen has been a pleasant surprise for the Hogs and Razorback Nation. After three games, the junior has 655 yards passing with seven scores against two picks. The upside is Allen has hit 67 percent of his passes. Arkansas offensive coordinator Dan Enos has brought his first-year starter along well. A SEC road contest in Jerry World presents a new challenge.
Allen and the Hogs’ offensive line will have to contend with Aggies’ defensive ends Myles Garret and Daeshon Hall, two of the conference’s and nation’s best.
Which Knight will We See
Knight has done well with his new team passing for 830 yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions. If there has been a knock on Knight’s play in the pocket during his collegiate career it has been his pass completion percentage. His freshman season with Oklahoma he had a career-high 59 percent. The numbers have continued to drop hitting 56 percent in 2014, 55 in 2015, and is off to a rocky start with his new squad owning a 52 percent completion rate.
Knight brings an element to the game that has plagued the Hogs under Bielema, stopping a dual-threat quarterback. Knight is on pace for a career-high in rushing yards with 151 to date inching towards the 445 yards posted during his freshman season.
As evident in the last two meetings between Arkansas and Texas A&M, Knight can be unspectacular for three quarters but if he hits two or three deep scoring pass attempts, that maybe all the Aggies need.
Slowing Down the Aggies Amazing WR Corps
Josh Reynolds (13/229/2), Christian Kirk (18/186/2), Ricky Seals-Jones (9/128/0), and Speedy Noil (6/84/1) are a quarterbacks dream come true. The stat line says a lot when Noil is the fourth leading receiver on a given team. Somehow Knight’s completion percentage is really low despite all the great receiving talent.
Arkansas was horrible last year against the pass rated 117th worst in the nation allowing 275 yards per contest. They will get tested time and time again on Saturday. Will DC Robb Smith lay off the Aggies receivers in soft coverage or play tight man hoping they do not get burned. If the Hogs secondary comes out playing bump and run, expect the Aggies to take shots deep early and often.
Aggies must Contend with Hogs Emerging Passing Game
When the two teams squared off a year ago, the Hogs passing attack was just emerging. Quarterback Brandon Allen and Mackey Award winning tight end Hunter Henry maybe gone, but another Allen is looking just as good and the Razorbacks have another tight end who might be just as good in Jeremy Sprinkle (9/97/3).
Their receiver corps may not have the name power of the Aggies but Keon Hatcher (11/204/2), Drew Morgan (15/168/1), and Dominic Reed (4/53/0) are pretty good in their own right. Reed is the deep threat who can score from anywhere on the field, Morgan is a sure-handed receiver able to secure the big pass to move the chains, and Hatcher is the wild card capable of scoring from anywhere, making a phenomenal play, or dropping a routine pass looking downfield.
Running Game Faceoff
Arkansas is known for running the ball but A&M has impressed this season as one of the better units in the nation, currently No. 2 in the SEC. Trayveon Williams (28/236/1) and Keith Ford (32/155/3) are a tough one-two punch. Knight can kill defenses with his legs, third on the team in rushing yards with 151 off 28 carries with three scores.
Arkansas counters with Rawleigh Williams (71/354/3) and Kody Walker (20/66/1). Walker is more of a short-yardage back who may get touches from time to time on first and second down. An emerging threat for Arkansas is true freshman Devwah Whaley. Whaley has not really found his footing yet but got some carries against Texas State pushing his season numbers to 56 yards off 15 carries.
Setting the tone up front for both teams is key. The Hogs have proven to be able to stop great running teams. They will be tested on Saturday.
Special Teams
Texas A&M has the advantage in and around the red zone to put points on the board with Daniel LaCamera. LaCamera has hit 9 of 10 this season with a long of 48-yards while completing all 14 extra point attempts. Cole Hedlund is a coin flip kicker with the ability to hit from 40-plus and equally capable of banging one off the upright from under 30. Hedlund is 2 of 3 on the year hitting 12 of 12 PATs.
Shane Tripucka is a very solid punter averaging 43 per kick but Arkansas’ Toby Baker is a beast averaging nearly 48 per. Both can flip the field but the extra five yard difference over the course of a game adds up.
In the return game, Aggies are far more dangerous with Justin Evans, Keith Ford, Christian Kirk, and Speedy Noil back deep. Don’t expect Arkansas to give too many opportunities for returns to this dangerous group.
Stats of Interest
Offense
The Aggies offense is amped up and ready to go. Overall, A&M is rushing for 237 yards a game, ranked 24th in the nation, and passing for 294, ranked 25th. In total, they average of 531 yards per game which is 14th best in the country. Aggies’ third down conversions are ranked No. 107 at a very low 30 percent.
Arkansas has the No. 74 ranked passing offense averaging 218 per, with their rushing total at No. 68 with 171 per. The Hogs total offense is ranked No. 81 with a pretty low 389 yards per. The Hogs third down conversion rate is ranked No. 75 at 37 percent.
Defense
Arkansas’ overall defense is ranked No. 34 allowing just 323 yards per. Their rush defense is ranked No. 21 allowing just 98 yards per game. The seemingly improved pass defense is allowing 224 yards per ranked No. 69.
A&M is tied at No. 53 allowing 357 total yards per. The rush defense is ranked No. 52 allowing 131 per. The passing attack allows 226 per ranked No. 71.
Final Analysis
Arkansas’ defense is good and the offense is improving. The big question is can the newly put together offensive line hold up against the Aggies pass rush?
Auburn and A&M burned one another on the ground with the Tigers netting 236 yards to the Aggies 231. Auburn has a very strong interior unit, can Arkansas use that blueprint?
A&M is still working on their offense settling for five field goals against a stingy Auburn defense. Further troubles came on third downs only converting 2-of-15 opportunities. Can they change their fortunes around against the Hogs extending drives?
The Hogs have turned a corner winning 10 of their last 12 with three overtime victories under their belt. The odds are in Arkansas’ favor for a victory even though they are the underdog.
Prediction: Arkansas 27, Texas A&M 21
Photo credit: fansfavoritefan.com; Arkansas vs. Texas A&M 2015.