2015 SEC Championship Game Preview: No. 18 Florida Gators vs. No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide

Written by Ryan Wright

Twitter: @HogManInLA

When the pigskin is kicked off for the 24th annual SEC Championship Game at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, it’s fitting that the Florida Gators will be taking on the Alabama Crimson Tide as the two programs are the stalwarts of college football’s most important title game. The Gators are making their 11th appearance in the game posting a 7-3 overall record, tops in the conference for wins and appearances. The Crimson Tide is making their 10th appearance with a record of 5-4 in Championship Weekend’s biggest game.

The second ranked Crimson Tide started the season off slow on offense with just two returning starters penciled in but returned seven on defense for one of the nation’s toughest units. The offense’s slow start caused a panic attack in the college football ranks when Bama lost 43-37 at home to a then- No. 15 ranked Ole Miss squad in Week 3. Most talking heads did not watch the game missing Bama’s 503 yards of total offense against the Rebels and the five turnovers given to Mississippi without a take back, but still fell one score short.

Bama righted the proverbial ship posting an 11-1, 7-1, record winning the West on the final weekend of the regular season taking care of in-state rival Auburn 29-13. The Tide has key wins over then- No. 20 Wisconsin (35-17), No. 8 Georgia (38-10), No. 9 Texas A&M (41-23), No. 2 LSU (30-16), and No. 17 Mississippi State (31-6).

First-year Florida head coach Jim McElwain has pieced the Gators’ offense together making it through a challenging schedule for a 10-2, 7-1, season. McElwain is known as an offense mind getting an average of 25 points per game out of his unit, but the defense constructed under former head coach Will Muschamp continued to knock helmets holding opposing offenses to 16 points a game on average.

The Gators have been through their share of offensive line woes and injuries and a setback under center when redshirt freshman Will Grier was suspended for using a banned substance six games into the season. McElwain handed the ball to sophomore Treon Harris, a starter down the back stretch of the 2014 season for the Gators. The offense stalled under Harris going from 32 points per game to 18 points per.

Both offenses will be challenged to come up with tough yards in the SEC Championship Game. If Alabama wins they are a shoo-in for the college football playoffs. If Florida can pull of the upset, the Gators appear to be too far outside the current Top Four to crack the playoffs but would send the College Football Playoff Selection Committee into a frenzy trying to piece their tournament back together without Alabama.

Keys to the Game

Treon Harris vs. Alabama’s Pass Defense

The drop off between Harris and Grier may not seem like much statistically, but the difference is tremendous on how the opposition plays Florida’s offense. Grier was averaging 200 yards passing per game. Harris is averaging just 137 yards. Alabama can pin their ears back to stop the run knowing Harris more than likely will not beat them with his arm allowing an extra defender in the box.

Alabama’s defense is one of the best in the nation and the pass defense has gotten stronger as the year has progressed. The secondary, with the help of pressure up front, is only allowing 186 yards per game having faced passing attacks like Arkansas, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, and Ole Miss.

Harris is the second leading rusher for the Gators with 193 yards on 73 carries. The sophomore has lost 153 yards on sacks putting a greater emphasis on getting the ball out quick against a salty Bama defense. If Florida can pull of the upset, Harris will more than likely have to run for over 100 yards to keep the chains moving helping the Gators into scoring position.

Heisman Leader Derrick Henry vs. Florida’s Rush Defense

The Gators have the nation’s No. 7 rush defense holding the opposition to 111 yards per game. Junior tailback Derrick Henry has 1,797 yard on the ground this season, tops in the nation (LSU RB Leonard Fournette No. 2 with 1,741 yards). LSU gained 423 yards of total offense against the Gators’ vaulted defense on Oct. 17 with Fournette rushing 31 times for 180 yards with two scores.

Alabama’s last time out, they rode Henry for 271 yards on a record setting 46 carries. Expect Harris to have another 30 carry night for the Tide to post the “W” but also expect a little bit more of Kenyan Drake and Damien Harris if both are healthy enough to contribute.

Florida’s Ground Attack vs. Alabama’s Passing Attack

If Bama can tie up Florida’s passing attack and the Gators’ can stuff the Tide’s ground game, it will be up to Jake Coker to pass Alabama to a win or Kelvin Taylor to rush the Gators to a victory.

Coker is not prolific by any stretch of the imagination averaging 190 yards passing per game but offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin does not call upon the senior to light up the opposition with his arm. True freshman Calvin Ridley and sophomore ArDarius Stewart have been the go-to guys on the outside for Coker when he drops back. Ridley has team-highs 67 receptions for 791 yards with five touchdowns. Stewart is second with 50 receptions, 536 yards, and three scores. Tight end O.J. Howard has not been the chain mover many had thought he would be entering the season but he has a very respectable 30 receptions for 335 yards but has yet to reach the end zone this season.

The Gators have some good young backs in their stable but the ground game is all Taylor’s. Taylor has rushed 241 times for 977 yards with 13 scores. Spelling Taylor more times than not is true freshman Jordan Scarlett; 201 yards rushing, 33 carries, one touchdown.

The Gators have reclaimed the “Defensive Back University” title away from LSU allowing just 172 passing yards a game, or the nation’s No. 9 pass defense. Bad news for Florida, Alabama has the nation’s top run defense grinding ground attacks to just 79 yards a game.

Final Analysis

Good thing games are not played on paper, if so neither offense would score and the game would be a 0-0 tie after 10 overtimes. Reality is Alabama has a little more experience putting points on the board averaging 35 per contest than the Gators.

Florida has a great record with quality wins over Tennessee (28-27), Ole Miss (38-10), and Georgia (27-3). The Gators posted 413 yards of total offense against a good Georgia defense but the Bulldogs also turned the ball over five times on the heels of running back Nick Chubb’s season ending knee injury. In the 11 other games outside the Ole Miss debacle, Alabama has just five turnovers on the season. Counting on creating short field position off turnovers or limiting Alabama’s scoring opportunities with takeaways will be tough.

Last time out Florida was flat missing two field goals against FSU. Taylor was the only consistent offense rushing for 136 yards on 24 scores. Harris completed just 50 percent of his passes, 19-of-38, for 134 yards.

Prediction: Alabama 27, Florida 10

Game Info

Kickoff: 4:00 p.m. ET

Coverage: CBS

Line: Opened at Alabama -12, has moved to Alabama -17.5

Site: Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Georgia

Photo credit: Butch Dill; Derrick Henry gets one of his 46 carries against Auburn in the 2015 Iron Bowl.