Arkansas Razorbacks vs. No 15 TCU Horned Frogs Preview and Prediction

Written by Ryan Wright

Twitter: @HogManInLA

Saturday’s contest between the Arkansas Razorbacks (1-0) and No. 15 TCU Horned Frogs (0-1) marks a renewal of old Southwest Conference foes squaring off on the gridiron for the first time since 1991. The cross-conference contest gives SEC and Big 12 fans fodder for watercooler and social media platform smack talk while adding legitimacy to the victor’s season.

Most millennials have no clue about the Southwest Conference or knowledge about TCU and Arkansas’ long rivalry dating back to 1920. As college football was coming up in the ranks as a beloved American sport, the two regional rivals met on the field 68 times until the early 90’s with Arkansas owning the series netting 43 wins against 23 losses with two ties. The game was far different then with Wishbone offenses dominating the landscape giving way to the modern spread offenses and pro-style attacks.

When Arkansas takes the field on offense, the Hogs will look to patch up holes along the offensive front exposed during a 21-20 win over Louisiana Tech in Week 1. The Razorbacks broke in three new starters on the offensive line with sophomore left guard Hjalte Froholdt appearing lost more times than not. The Hogs averaged 197 yards on the ground a year ago but were held to 106 yards against the Bulldogs. A drop off in production was expected but not that big of a loss.

TCU is not without their shortcomings as well after rallying from a 10 point deficit to Division-II South Dakota State for a 59-41 win. TCU allowed 461 total yards of offense to the Jackrabbits and starting quarterback Kenny Hill threw two picks before settling in for 439 yards passing with two scores and 45 yards rushing with three more touchdowns.

Both Arkansas and TCU have holes to fill and problems to tighten up before taking the field against one another in Fort Worth, but which team can eliminate the big mistakes over a week’s worth of practices better than the other?

Keys to the Game

Can Arkansas Contain Kenny Hill?

Arkansas fans can scoff at Hill’s production against a Division-II team but in 2014 that same quarterback turned in a similar performance against the Hogs. When Hill was with Texas A&M, he constructed a 35-28 overtime win against the Razorbacks passing for 386 yards with four touchdowns against one interception and frustrated the defense with six carries for 30 yards keeping drives alive.

Arkansas showed signs of improvement in their pass defense on the stat sheet but did not pass the eyeball test. In 2015, the Hogs allowed an average of 275 passing yards per game. Against the Bulldogs they allowed 212. Under greater scrutiny, the Razorbacks returned nine starters and Louisiana Tech started a freshman under center.

In recent years, the Hogs have had trouble stopping dual-threat quarterbacks. Facing TCU is not an easy matchup for the Razorbacks defense.

Will the Hogs Establish their Run Game?

Any Bret Bielema coached team will feature the run. The Hogs rushing totals against Louisiana Tech took a hit off four Austin Allen sacks totaling 26 yards. True sophomore running back Rawleigh Williams looked good in his return from a horrible neck injury in 2015 rushing 24 times for 96 yards and a score.

The game plan looked like Arkansas wanted to get first-year starter Austin Allen into a comfort zone in the offense. Allen completed 20 of 29 passes for 191 yards with two scores, including the game winner, a four-yard fourth down pass to tight end Jeremy Sprinkle in the fourth quarter. Now the Razorbacks need to ground and pound against TCU.

The Horned Frogs were subpar stopping the run a year ago allowing 183 yards per game. They allowed 128 yards off 34 carries to the Jackrabbits. South Dakota State took to the air in the shootout coming up with 333 yards. The thought to exploit that weakness may seem like a good idea but will do nothing positive for this squad going forward. Arkansas will have to run the ball in SEC play to win this year.

Can Arkansas Avoid a Shootout with TCU?

TCU head coach Gary Patterson built his reputation on tough as nails defenses but over the past couple of seasons he has morphed his team into a “typical” Big 12 unit, high scoring offense with very little defense. Allen could get a baptism by fire with his hand forced to throw if the Hogs fall behind. The good thing is he has more than enough weapons to connect with if needed should he have to throw to win. Trouble is the line could still be shaky in pass sets and Allen locks onto a receiver like a child about to get an ice cream cone.

If Arkansas can stick to the running attack, they will shorten the game and wear down the defense in the second half. All of those passing lanes will open up for Allen and the Hogs can really start rolling late in the third quarter.

The Hogs passing routes rarely feature getting the ball deep. Most of the routes are 10-15 yards deep or under keeping the offense contained. Taking a shot or two deep early may loosen up the defense allowing for other underneath routes to open up while backing a safety out of the box helping the run game. The Razorbacks may have the plays in the playbook to go deep but their offense is conservative, not a quick strike attack. A shootout would more than likely favor TCU unless Allen finds his form in his second collegiate start.

Final Analysis

Arkansas defensive coordinator Robb Smith eliminates the effectiveness of his defensive ends against spread offenses with his approach to coverage in the secondary. The Hogs do not press off the line in fear of giving up a big play allowing dink and dunk completions. If Arkansas turned the defensive ends loose and allowed the corners to play bump-and-run or man coverage, this could put more pressure on Hill to check down receivers allowing the ends time to get quarterback hurries and sacks. If the Hogs do not switch something up or come with blitzes to disrupt TCU, Hill could carve up the Hogs defense.

If Hill starts throwing darts, Taj Williams, who had 11 receptions covering 158 yards with a score in Game 1, and KaVontae Turpin, who became a chain mover for TCU last week pulling in seven passes for 62 yards, will be the key players to stop.

Running back Kyle Hicks only had 59 yards rushing for TCU off 15 carries but did score twice. Arkansas should be able to stop the run with little problems.

Arkansas offensive coordinator Dan Enos does a great job of trying to balance the offense. Being vanilla by running on first and second down and only throwing on third down for the first few series out of the gate might be the best play until a TCU weakness is exposed. TCU is not a defensive juggernaut, something Arkansas should be able to take advantage of even with unknowns along the offensive line.

Hill is the “X-factor” in the game. If the Frogs quarterback is contained, the Hogs should have an easy victory. If Hill meets little resistance, TCU could manufacture a blowout or get into a shootout with the Hogs.

Prediction: Arkansas 38, TCU 28

Game Information

Kickoff: 7:00 p.m. ET

Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas

Spread: Arkansas -7.5

TV Coverage: ESPN

Photo credit: dallasnews.com; No. 22 Rawleigh Williams stiff arms a Louisiana Tech defender for more yards.