Game-by-Game Prediction of the Missouri Tigers 2019 Season
Written by Chris Neudecker
Twitter: @Chris_Neudecker
Welcome to another season of Missouri Tigers college football. Yes, this season will be different. Why would this season be different you ask? My response is the same as my parents’ when I was a kid… “because I said so.”
The Tigers are not picked to contend for a SEC championship or a SEC East Division title, but that does not mean they cannot achieve such goals. Yet, the feel of the program in recent seasons reminds me of the words of the immortal Bob Uecker in his Harry Doyle character from the film Major League, “Just a reminder fans, coming up is our Die-Hard Night here at the stadium. Free admissions to anyone who was actually alive the last time the Tigers won a conference championship.”
It has been a long time since the Tigers pulled off an SEC East championship; the 2014 campaign to be exact in an 11-3, 7-1 SEC, season ending in a 33-17 Citrus Bowl win over Minnesota. But there is always an outside hope that Mizzou could pull one off in 2019 knocking past Coaches’ Preseason Poll No. 3 Georgia and No. 8 Florida for the right to face the best in the West. But, will this be the year? Let us delve into their chances by looking at their schedule.
Preface: I am a Tigers fan and a university alum, so I want the team to do well. As with all articles written about football, there will be a lot of subjectivity within it. This article is no different, and why should it be…
Missouri Tigers 2019 Schedule Breakdown
Byes: Week 5 and Week 10
Week 1 – Aug. 31 at Wyoming – War Memorial Stadium – Laramie (WY)
The first game of the season is 806 highway miles away from Columbia, or a 12-hour drive with minimal stops. Although the distance is not the most concerning aspect of this game, the altitude is. If you have never spent much time at high elevations, then understand this, it is hard to play an entire game of football a mile above sea level. For those who are not accustomed to such, breathing is cumbersome and it will affect your play.
In order to win these high elevation games, your defense has to maximize the “three-and-out” opportunities, especially in the first half of the game. If the Tigers can make that happen, then the offense has to have a lot of depth and run the ball efficiently. Controlling the clock will be Mizzou’s key to victory. Funny enough, the Cowboys will try to do the same. That makes this game a slugfest to some degree, but if Mizzou is to win, then they must bring the “D” with them.
Note, all season opening games are sloppy, and this one will be as well.
Prediction: Mizzou 28, Wyoming 24.
This will be a quality road win for the Tigers over a Mountain West Conference squad due to the circumstances of the game.
Week 2 – Sept. 7 vs. West Virginia at Faurot Field
Mizzou is going to enjoy five straight home games to open the 2019 schedule after squaring off against Wyoming, but this one won’t be easy. One way or another, the Tigers were going to face Coach Neal Brown this season, but this time they’ll face him as the new WVU coach instead of on the sidelines with Troy University (AL).
Coach Dana Hogerson left a Power 5 school for the East Texas pastures of Houston, but West Virginia’s team won’t look a whole lot different than last year under Coach Brown. But any time a new coach is inserted, it takes a while for most athletes to adjust to the new plays, the new calls, the new technics, and a new attitude.
Fortunately for the Tigers, all this “newness” will benefit them with a tough win at home. The Tigers offense will be more productive, but also expect a little sloppiness in Week 2.
Prediction: Mizzou 37, WVU 31
Week 3 – Sept. 14 vs. Southeast Missouri State at Faurot Field
Although SEMO is much better than years of old, they should not come close to winning this game. The Redhawks were one of the best FCS programs in the nation in 2018 finishing with a 9-4, 6-2 in the Ohio Valley Conference, making a second round run into the playoffs before falling to then- No. 3 Weber State. When the Redhawks played a Division-I team a year ago, they lost handedly to Arkansas State (48-21).
The Tigers’ offense continues to improve in the third game of the season heading on to a victory as they prepare to enter their SEC schedule in Week 4.
Prediction: Mizzou 52, SEMO 17
Week 4 – Sept. 21 vs. South Carolina at Faurot Field
USC, as their fans call them, is a scrappy team who rarely gives up. Tiger fans remember last year’s game, painfully, as we watched USC win a game (37-35) that could have been ours. I expect another scrappy game, but this year should be a win for the Tigers at home. It will be a close one, but we’ll take what is given to us. Mizzou has a couple of advantages in this one, the Gamecocks go on the road for their first SEC game of the season and could have an “Alabama hangover” after hosting the No. 2 team in the nation the week prior.
The Tigers defense will win this one with key blitzes on third downs forcing USC to punt the ball more than desire in their previous three games against North Carolina and Charleston Southern.
Prediction: Mizzou 33, USC 27
Week 6 – Oct. 5 vs. Troy at Faurot Field
Troy has been a tough team since the early 2000’s when they started playing Power 5 teams on the road, and beating them with higher than normal frequency. Fast forward to 2019, and though they are feared, they are also experiencing a new coaching regime. New head coach Chip Lindsey is taking the reins of Troy as he moves a few miles south to Dothan (AL_ from Auburn (AL) where he was the offensive coordinator of the Tigers on The Plains. We don’t know what type of offense Chip will run; Auburn or former Troy types of offensive sets. Either way a new head coach always struggles with their first year. Expect the same struggles here as the Tigers win at home because their offense and defense will have jelled well during this extensive home schedule.
Prediction: Mizzou 42, Troy 28
Week 7 – Oct. 12 vs. Ole Miss at Faurot Field
Ole Miss will have to break in some new players on both sides of the ball in 2019, as well as a new offensive (Rich Rodriguez) and a defensive coordinator (Mike MacIntyre). This will be Ole Miss’ seventh game of the season, with their toughest game of the season against Alabama being played a couple of weeks before on Sept. 28.
If injuries play no part at this point in the season, then Ole Miss should be an easy win. However, Ole Miss always has talent on their side, and they forge through with perseverance; but will they have enough in the tank to hold off the Tigers? Ole Miss’ defense will not be able to stop Mizzou from a balanced attack. Coach Dooley will make sure the offense uses a lot of play fakes and roll-outs to defeat a youthful and overly aggressive Ole Miss defense. The key difference is quarterback play, and although Mizzou has a new quarterback, he is not new to complex offenses and can easily handle the overall aspect of this game.
Prediction: Mizzou 44, Ole Miss 31
Week 8 – Oct. 19 at Vanderbilt – Vanderbilt Stadium – Nashville (TN)
At this point, the season is half way completed and the Tigers are looking pretty good. Depending on how all other teams have fared, the Tigers might be ranked in the AP Top 15 by default. Which would be great for the team and for the fan base. Now, a quick trip to Music City to take on the Vanderbilt Commodores.
If there is ever a team to be afraid of it would be the Commodores. This team tends to get the most out of their players, and this game will be the same. Vandy will control the clock and work the Tigers’ interior defense more than most teams beforehand. Additionally, Vandy’s defense will bring delayed blitzes from the inside to disrupt Mizzou’s quarterback and offset the ability to move vertically. Expect Mizzou to have a good bit of dump passes to make it through this game.
Prediction: Mizzou 27, Vanderbilt 21
Week 9 – Oct. 26 at Kentucky – Kroger Field – Lexington (KY)
Kentucky was another game that, as a Tiger fan, was painful to watch last season. Another victory snatched from the jaws, so to speak, in a 15-14 home loss. Kentucky will not be the same team as they were in 2018 with most of their top talents off to the NFL. Kentucky’s defense will have some transitions, and, let’s face it, Kentucky’s offense did a poor job of scoring points last year, which means the statistical-tide of victories will have run its course.
Mizzou will be able to move the ball on the outside of the hash more efficiently than it did last year. Quick hits to the outside will free the tight end to swing the middle for big plays downfield. However, the red-zone scoring is what Mizzou might struggle at, and therefore, a kicking game will ensue.
Prediction: Mizzou 23, Kentucky 13
Week 11 – Nov. 9 at Georgia – Sanford Stadium – Athens (GA)
Beating the Dawgs is always tough, but beating them at home seems near impossible. Missouri lost this one in Week 4 a year ago 43-29. The halftime score was close, 20-7, but the Bulldogs poured it on in the second half for the win. The Tigers played close last season, 393 yards racked up to UGA’s 445, but three fumbles, two lost, a missed field goal, and a Drew Locke interception was too much to overcome, even at home.
Although it can happen, I have doubts that the Tigers can pull this one off. Make this six straight wins for the Bulldogs over the Tigers.
Prediction: Mizzou 21, UGA 35
Week 12 – Nov. 16 vs. Florida at Faurot Field
After a tough game in Athens, three consecutive on the road, the Tigers head home to play a good Florida team. Fortunately, it will be mid-November in Columbia, and anyone who has ever lived in the warm-humid central Florida area understands that you become acclimated to that weather quickly making exposure to cool weather less tolerable. Fingers crossed for a nice cold front to roll through during this time.
Missouri won this game last year, with the offense compiling 471 yards, 221 on the ground, to beat the Gators 38-17, but back-to-back wins against a stout defense is hard to come by. Florida head coach Dan Mullen will have his Gators chomping on defense with some surprising trick plays up his sleeve on offense. It will be a hard-fought game, but put down another loss for the Tigers.
Prediction: Mizzou 20, Florida 31
Week 13 – Nov. 23 vs. Tennessee at Faurot Field
This should come as no surprise, but Volunteer fans start the year off hyping up their team, while the season typically ends in disappointment. Until the past results change, expect the same this season. UT will start the year in fight mode, but as injuries set in, they will succumb to youth clawing their way to victories on the shoulders of inexperienced talent.
The Vols will have gone through Florida (road), Georgia, Mississippi State, Alabama (road), and South Carolina in consecutive weeks from mid-September to late October. Guessing that gauntlet will wither the Vols, who are still very young. A road game to Kentucky before heading to Columbia will allow Mizzou to rebound from consecutive losses.
Prediction: Mizzou 41, UT 24
Week 14 – Nov. 29 at Arkansas – War Memorial Stadium – Little Rock (AR)
Speaking of youth and roster turnover, the Hogs have it all. They have had 30 something players leave the team since head coach Chad Morris took the reins, and that is not due to graduation. Coach Morris is working on installing his offense, and, according to him, it will take three seasons to happen. With that in mind, the Tigers should beat the Hogs again this year after steamrolling them 38-0 in 2018.
Prediction: Mizzou 49, Hogs 27
Overview
Missouri Tigers 2019 Record: 10-2, 6-2 in the SEC
The schedule works in Mizzou’s favor and there is a lot of returning talent from last season’s 8-5, 4-4 team. The offense has experience in the trenches and 1,200-yard running back Larry Roundtree back. The defense returns six starters with a senior laden linebacking corps. If the injury bug does not hit and the Tigers have a favorable turnover ratio, then the Missouri could be looking great come December. Every season is unpredictable but that is what makes college football great.
Photo credit: YouTube.com; Larry Roundtree breaks loose