Missouri Tigers vs. Florida Gators Statistical Preview and Prediction
Posted by Ryan Wright
Twitter: @RyanWrightRNG
Week 5 of the 2020 college football season in the SEC picks up on Saturday with exciting matchups across the board and showdowns in the East that will help decide a divisional title winner. Heading from Columbia to Gainesville, the Missouri Tigers (2-2) seek to take the Florida Gators (2-1) out of the ranks of divisional title contenders.
After consecutive blowout losses to open the season against No. 2 Alabama (38-19) and to then- No. 21 Tennessee (35-12), the Tigers have found their footing under first-year head coach Eliah Drinkwitz. Missouri shocked the nation at Memorial Stadium on Oct. 10 upending No. 17 LSU 45-41. The offense kept it going after a bye week with another home victory taking down Kentucky 20-10.
The Gators return to action for the first time since Oct. 10 when they took a 41-38 road loss to No. 21 Texas A&M. Due to COVID-19 protocols, Florida had to push their Oct. 17 game against LSU rescheduling that cross-divisional rivalry game for Dec. 12. Against the Aggies, A&M outperformed Dan Mullen’s offense gaining 205 yards on the ground to 90 and Kellen Mond threw for 338 with three scores to Kyle Trask’s 312 yards and four touchdowns.
Missouri Tigers (2-2) vs. No. 10 Florida Gators
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: SEC Network Alternate
Spread: Florida -13.5
*There are currently 101 active FBS teams playing
Missouri Tigers Offense
Scoring Offense: 24 points per game, ranked 71st overall
Passing Yards Per Game: 269.5 yards, ranked 29th overall
Rushing Yards Per Game: 148.8 yards, ranked 59th overall
Red Zone Offense: 11-of-12, 6 TDs, 5 FGs
Third Down Conversions: 29-of-61, 48%, ranked 26th overall
Total Offense: 418.3 yards, ranked 42nd overall
Florida Gators Defense
Passing Yards Allowed: 331 yards, ranked 95th overall
Rushing Yards Allowed: 164 yards, ranked 57th overall
Third Down Defense: 27-of-46, 59%, ranked 99th overall
Total Defense: 495 yards, ranked 93rd overall
Points Allowed Per Game: 33
Missouri Tigers Defense
Passing Yards Allowed: 242.5 yards, ranked 54th overall
Rushing Yards Allowed: 122.5 yards, ranked 29th overall
Third Down Defense: 17-of-46, 37%, ranked 37th overall
Total Defense: 365 yards, ranked 33rd overall
Points Allowed Per Game: 31, ranked 59th overall
Florida Gators Offense
Scoring Offense: 42.3 points per game, ranked 10th overall
Passing Yards Per Game: 342 yards, ranked 10th overall
Rushing Yards Per Game: 122 yards, ranked 79th overall
Red Zone Offense: 15-for-15, 12 TDs, 3 FGs
Third Down Conversions: 16-of-28, 57%, ranked No. 6 overall
Total Offense: 464 yards, ranked 24th overall
Missouri vs. Florida Strength of Schedule
Missouri: 10th
Florida: 40th
Final Analysis
Statistically speaking, about the only thing Florida does better than Missouri is sling the ball downfield and convert on third downs. And, Missouri has played the tougher schedule to date taking on three Top 25 teams with a 1-2 record in those contests while Florida lost their lone game against a ranked opponent. Florida has an advantage playing at home, time will tell if the layoff will help or hinder the Gators.
This meeting has the feel of the last team with the ball dictates the outcome of the game in a high-scoring shootout. The lean might be towards the Gators being at home even though Missouri walked out of the Swamp last time in Gainesville with a 38-17 win and owns the all-time series 5-4. Doubts remain with Missouri on the road.
Prediction: Florida 38, Missouri 35
Photo credit: Orlando Sentinel; No. 11 Kyle Trask