Rose Bowl Preview and Prediction: No. 4 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Alabama
Written by Ryan Wright
Twitter: @RyanWrightRNG
Fans wanting a historical showdown in the College Football Playoff will get one on New Year’s Day with the pairing of No. 4 Notre Dame verses No. 1 Alabama in the Rose Bowl. Just the eighth time the two programs have met on the field, fourth in a bowl game setting, the winner marches onto the National Championship Game to face the winner of the No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 3 Ohio State semifinal out of the Sugar Bowl.
In a year full of the unconventional, Notre Dame made the playoff as a member of the Atlantic Coast Conference. The Fighting Irish aligned with the ACC for scheduling purposes taking the conference by storm winning the regular season title with a 9-0 mark, posting a 10-1 record overall. Notre Dame faced ACC behemoth Clemson on Nov. 7 beating the then-No. 1 team 47-40 in double-overtime under the watchful eyes of “Touchdown Jesus.” The Fighting Irish padded the resume with a road win against No. 19 North Carolina (31-17) and dropped their only game of the season in the ACC Championship Game to the Tigers losing 34-10.
Alabama (11-0) got back into the SEC Championship Game and College Football Playoff after a one-year hiatus by dominating their conference. The Crimson Tide posted a 30.28-point margin of victory on average taking down four ranked teams, two inside the Top 10. In their biggest game of the year, then-No. 7 Florida put Alabama to the test in a 52-46 shootout before claiming their 28th SEC title in school history.
No 4 Notre Dame vs No 1 Alabama
Kickoff: 4:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Rose Bowl at AT&T Stadium – Arlington, Texas
Spread: Alabama -20
When Notre Dame Has the Ball
Notre Dame grounded up ACC competition in 2020 with a fierce rushing attack that produced 217.6 yards a game. The two-headed monster out of the backfield leading the charge was Kyren Williams and Chris Tyree. Williams rolled for 1,061 yards and 12 scores while Tyree had 480 yards with four trips into the end zone.
The rushing attack was bolstered by dual-threat Ian Book. Book was third on the team with 430 yards producing eight rushing scores. When dropping back, Book completed 64 percent of his passes for 2,601 yards carrying at 15:2 touchdown/interception ratio. Book posted one 300-yard passing game, coming against Clemson in the regular season, three times throwing for a season’s best three scores. Helping the passing attack average 237.5 yards a game are five targets with 23 or more receptions led by Javon McKinley. McKinley was the playmaker for Book securing 40 for 697 yards with three touchdowns.
Outside of the Gators meeting when the Tide allowed 462 yards of total offense, 408 passing, the defense has pretty much been on point all season. The opposition is gaining 351.2 total yards on average, 107.6 rushing and 243.55, limited to 19.45 points a game. The standouts on defense for Alabama are linebacker Dylan Moses and cornerback Patrick Surtain II, both first team All-American selections.
When Alabama Has the Ball
The Alabama offense is loaded with talent across the board, but everything begins with All-American running back Najee Harris. Harris led the SEC in carries (214), yards (1,262), and touchdowns (24). Helping Harris get the creases are All-Americans Landon Dickerson at center and Alex Leatherwood at left tackle.
The Crimson Tide had the nation’s fifth best passing offense averaging 354.1 yards per game thanks to the talents of junior quarterback Mac Jones. Jones, an All-American and Heisman finalist, led the SEC in completion percentage (76.5) and QB Rating (202.3) on the way to 3,739 yards and 32 touchdowns with only four interceptions tossed in 327 attempts. Jones has another All-American, and Heisman finalist, backing his play in receiver DeVonta Smith. Smith led the FBS ranks in receptions (98) and yards (1,511) with 17 touchdowns scored.
Notre Dame’s defense was exposed in the ACC Championship Game watching Clemson churn up 541 yards of total offense. After Clemson’s rushing attack was stifled in the regular season meeting, the Tigers produced 219 yards rushing thanks to Travis Etienne’s 124 and Trevor Lawrence’s 90 yards on 14 totes. Although throwing one pick, Lawrence picked apart Notre Dame’s defense for 322 yards with two touchdowns.
Final Analysis
With Clemson returning all their players to the field for the championship game after losing several on both sides of the ball during the season against Notre Dame (COVID), the 34-10 defeat suffered on a neutral site does not bode well for their chances against Alabama. Bama is as talented, if not more so, than Clemson with an elite quarterback, dynamic receivers, and a dominating tailback.
Only one team has rushed for more than 200 yards on Alabama this year, Ole Miss went for 268 with four touchdowns. The Rebels also passed for 379 yards with two touchdowns, and still lost. Can Notre Dame come close to matching Alabama’s offense series for series?
In the new millennium, these two teams have only met once, a 42-14 BCS Championship win for Alabama in Miami. Chalk up another National Championship Game appearance for the Crimson Tide.
Prediction: Alabama 42, Notre Dame 21
Photo credit: Univ. of Alabama; No. 22 Najee Harris hurdles an Ole Miss defender